What is brewing is a perfect Conservative storm. What is being printed so far is Tory fear of Ed Miliband.

The New Year begins with more Ed bashing. Not a New Years hangover through alcoholic excess but more of the excessive and baseless knocking of Ed Miliband.

Iain Martin in his Telegraph article falls in to all the old traps. A retread article that tries to reinforce a narrative that Ed Miliband is weak.

The truth is they have every reason to fear a courageous and intelligent leader whom Cameron has had to chase after; on Murdock, on standards in public life, on public disaffection with a 30 year Thatcherite consensus, on top pay and aggressive capitalism and even on welfare reform: how ironic it was to hear Cameron reprise the quintessential Miliband quote 'a something for something culture' and do it verbatim. Flattery is a high complement.


This author in perpetuating this narrative bets all his chips on four discredited assumptions. By the way the same foundationless pillars other journalists build upon.

The first two erroneous points are that opposition parties build up big mid term leads and Governments gain swing back at general elections.

Neither of these two has been true for a long time with modern polling. Governments have not gained any swing back since pollsters refined their questions and filtered formulas. Long gone are the days of pencil and paper, of Blair or Kinnock in opposition mounting up phantom stratospheric leads only to see them wither come the big vote. It just doesn't happen. With today's pollsters, what's on the tin is on the inside.

Pollsters are within 1% these days and any variance that occurs over time is minimal. Trajectories are constantly running away from governments.

Labour polled 40.7% in 2001 General Election. A remarkable result that had Blairites purring. It must come as a shock to many to see Ed Miliband exceeding that percentage in no less than 89 polls despite the inherited millstone of New Labour.

You have to admire how in 18 months he has lifted a badly defeated party and how under his leadership progressive voters are forgiving Labour in their droves, as well as delivering a credible economic analysis, reforming the party through Refounding Labour and uniting the PLP to degree not seen in many a year.

In short the Tories will need to have good policies and a good strategy to stop the rot. Pressing the big red button on Europe is a start but possibly one that may result in a rather sad ending. Europe is not as as simple as jingoism.

The third sloppy trap Mr Martin falls for is the 'Mr Miliband is failing' without a credible yardstick. It follows the same cavalier and misplaced argument on swing back and mid term leads.

Ed Milibands popularity ratings compare favourably with Cameron's in his first 12 months. However and further to that, opposition leaders are opposition leaders ie out of the spotlight. It is Governments that fall.

The fourth major flaw in what is a sloppy piece at best is that grand old pendulum theory. It's red v. blue and blues aren't shifting to red. In the cosy world of a goldfish bowl analysis this one isn't swimming anywhere either.

The Tories are stuck at 37% where they were at the last General Election. The simple logic that follows is no Labour breakthrough equates to 3 pips for the Tories.

The reality is the progressive vote since 1974 has always outvoted hugely an ever contracting Tory vote. 16million v 9million roughly speaking. A Conservative 37% is nowhere if all those that didn't like and didn't vote Conservative in the General Election 2010 vote for one progressive party instead of two. And if that happens then 37% is arrivederci, sayonara, au revoir to a second term for Prime Minister Cameron.

Worse, Cameron is not taking headline Liberal votes. The ones he's gaining he's losing in the churn to Labour. I 'd guess DE's whose fragile vote oscillates and usually against the incumbent.

That in short, if the Liberals cannot get above 18% or so and the Tories cannot divide the progressive vote they are destined to lose. Voter retention for the blues is the least of their worries. A collapsing LibDem vote means Cameron must poll 43-45% to have a chance. Territory they have not been in for decades.

The only important pendulum theory that matters to Mr Miliband and Mr Cameron is Liberal to Labour swing. This is the anomalistic quint-essentialness of three party British politics and crucially Miliband does not need Tory voters to stop Mr Cameron being a second term Prime Minister.

A system where Labour currently has a 7% advantage and even with new boundaries should maintain a 4% advantage due in part to Labour voters in safe seats not voting and the broader appeal of two competing progressive parties.

So yes. Blues aren't switching, Mr Miliband isn't getting PM ratings and importantly pollsters aren't going back to the days of yore and pencil and paper. All of this leaves Ed Miliband is in a very strong position going into 2012.

A position most Labour voters would have thought was fantasy land during the nadir of 2009.

Ed Miliband has done well given the appalling hand he was dealt. He knows where the weak Tory voters are, he understands Labour's weaknesses. What is brewing is a perfect Conservative storm. What is being printed so far is Tory fear.

Sent from my iPhone with usual predictive text errors!